CFA: Expectations on the Romanian economic situation improved in May

Expectations on the Romanian economic situation based on the macroeconomic trust index improved in May by 5.8 points compared with April, to 66.6 points, mainly due to the increase in the current economic conditions at a record maximum level, according to CFA data.

The CFA Romania indicator launched in 2011 measures the financial analysts’ estimations regarding the Romanian economic activity for the next 12 months. The increase from May took place after the increase in Romanian macro-indicator trust index in April, by 4 points compared with March, to 60.8 points.

The survey shows a significant improvement of expectations on business conditions in Romania in the next 12 months, and only 27.3 percent of the respondents expect the business conditions to be worse. The indicator takes into account values between 0 and 100 and is calculated based on six questions regarding the current conditions, the business environment and labor market and the estimations for one year for the business environment, labor market and the evolution of the personal income and the personal wealth.

The survey evaluates also the salaries estimations, the inflation rate, interest rates, the exchange rate EUR/RON, the BET stock exchange index, the global macroeconomic conditions and the oil price. However, according to the survey, for the exchange rate EUR/RON, 73 percent of the respondents anticipate a depreciation of RON in the next 12 months.

“The average values of the estimations for six months showed an estimated rate of 4.5650 and for 12 months they showed an anticipated rate of 4.6000,” says the release.

Analysts expect a slightly worse situation of the labor marker in the next year, with a balance of 5 percent of the answers from 0 percent in April, but an increase in personal incomes.

The CFA’s members analysts estimate in average an inflation rate of 2 percent for June 2017- June 2018, over the anticipated level from the previous report, of 1.65 percent.