Opinion: Brexit vote comes down to identity politics

Brexit could allow war to break out again in Europe. The European Union is like Hitler. The claims emerging from both camps here in the UK as the clock ticks down to next month’s referendum are becoming ever more extreme.

by Debbie Stowe in London

In the Remain corner: the British prime minister, David Cameron, most of his cabinet, and the leaders of three other mainstream parties: Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens. They are supported by major figures in international business and politics, from Barack Obama to the IMF’s Christine Lagarde.

In the Leave corner: Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP); the charismatic former mayor of London, Bois Johnson; and a handful of senior Conservatives and Labourites.

Lately, the polls have generally been running neck and neck. The markets and the bookies seem slightly to favor a Remain victory.

And what of the public? Which side of the fence you’re on is tightly bound up in the UK’s identity politics.

Are you old, poor or uneducated? Do you live in a rural area? If so, you’re likely to vote for Brexit – especially if you’re male. Are you young, wealthy or a university graduate or student? Are you a businessperson or an urban-dweller? Scottish? Then you’d probably rather the UK stayed in the EU.

Plenty of arguments and assertions are flying about. EU membership is good/bad for British business/employment/security. But all of this is very hard to prove definitively. Nobody can really state much for sure. So voters are deciding based on associations, rather than assertions.

Bold patriots, longing to see this green and pleasant land restored to its former glory, no longer at the mercy of the tyrants and bureaucrats of Brussels! (Or ignorant Little Englanders, terrified of anyone different, losers in the great game of globalization, desperately harking back to long distant history and turning away from the modern world, depending on your viewpoint.)

Open-minded, outward-looking and modern Europeans, who embrace the togetherness and opportunities presented by the union, and love the travel and cultural exchange it supports! (Or treacherous cowards and supporters of the distrusted “elite”, happy to hand over the UK’s precious sovereignty and jobs to foreigners and take orders from outsiders, with scant regard for our island’s proud history, as some see it.)

This sort of thinking will likely decide how many Brits will vote – and that’s if they even get a say, which high numbers of those with the most to lose do not. Under UK law, expatriates are entitled to vote in general elections (and in the forthcoming referendum) – but only for the first 15 years after they depart the country.

However, many members of the diaspora across the EU – typically the retirees in Spain and France, but also some of those making a living here in Romania – have been gone longer, and are therefore denied a voice, to their outrage.

Brits in Bucharest and beyond worry about a return to the pre-2007 days, when some bosses organized minibus roundtrips to Ruse, over the Bulgarian border, every 90 days, just so their staff could get their passports stamped.

The UK has already had one costly and disruptive referendum recently, on Scottish independence, which after running very close towards the end of the campaign was finally decided in favor of the status quo by some margin. Let’s hope the same happens in June. If not, I could be booking my place on the bus to Ruse.

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