Romania’s budget deficit reaches 0.2 pct of GDP on seven months

Newsroom 26/08/2016 | 10:48

The Romanian general consolidated budget closed with a deficit of RON 1.74 billion in the first seven months, respectively 0.2 percent of GDP.       

The general consolidated budget revenues amounted RON 129.6 billion, representing 17.1 of GDP, and were lower by 2.4 percent in nominal terms compared with the same period of the last year. In the same period, the collected revenues of the National Tax Authority (ANAF) were bigger with 1.4 percent versus the same period of the last year and by 0.5 percent over the program of this year.

The budget registered increases in the revenues compared with the same period of 2015 from the profit tax (10.5 percent), excises (7.1 percent), contributions from social insurance (6.6 percent), the taxes for salaries and revenues (2.8 percent) as well as the tax for goods usage (14.7 percent).

The VAT collected decreased by 10.1 percent compared with the same period of the last year. The Ministry of Finance said that we should take into account the fact that the standard VAT  was cyt from 24 percent to 20 percent starting January 1, which was reflected in the revenues from February, and also by the introduction of a reduced VAT for food products of 9 percent from June 1 2015.

“We forecast next year’s fiscal gap at -3.6 percent of GDP (cash terms) based on a no-policy-change scenario and assuming (only) a 10 percent hike in public sector wages. Populist legislative initiatives supported by different MPs are likely to be on parliament’s agenda this Fall and could lead to wider gaps next year. One thing worth watching would be a high fiscal burden related to wage and social bills. We can hardly imagine that such decisions could be reversed and this would lead to either (initially) cutting (further) investment spending or finding other resources (new or higher taxes). Nevertheless, recent history tells us that both major parties have committed to the 3 percent of GDP budget threshold. Hence, we attach higher chances for the fiscal easing measures, not directly linked to the wage/pension envelope, being delayed/scrapped in order to remain compliant with EU rules,” said ING analysts in a statement.

The revenues from social insurance contributions from the general consolidated budget were bigger with 6.6 percent compared with the same period of the last year. The increase took place even in the conditions of some negative influences of the volume increase in the Pillar II of pensions contributions, of the contributions quota growth from 5 percent in 2015 to 5.1 percent in 2016 as well as of the applicability of the law regarding the state military pensions.

At the local administrations level, the state registered increases also in the non fiscal revenues by 15 percent, in the taxes for property by 10.9 percent and in the goods usage tax by 6.2 percent, compared with the last year.

The expenses of the general consolidated budget amounting RON 131.4 billion grew in nominal terms by 4.7 percent compared with the same period of the last year, but decreased by 0.2 percentage points expressed in GDP terms.

Georgiana Bendre

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