Romania’s CFA indicator: Macroeconomic trust down for the third month in row, analysts anticipate RON depreciation

Georgiana Bendre 25/09/2017 | 12:38

The macroeconomic trust indicator of CFA Romania, calculated based on the estimation of organization’s members, dropped in August compared with the previous month at 50.7 points, by 9 points lower than the value from the former taxable year.

The financial analysts anticipate the RON depreciation in the next 12 months and the increase in interest rates in RON, both for short term maturities (3 months), as well as for medium term maturities (5 years). In August, the CFA Romania macroeconomic trust indicator dropped by 9 points than in the previous taxable year. The decrease was due to both components of the indicator.

The current conditions indicator was 68.6 points, a drop by 6.4 points, while the estimations indicator dropped by 10.2 points up to 41.8 points (the lowest value since March 2013). On the EUR/RON exchange rate, 80 percent of the participants anticipate a RON depreciation in the next 12 months.

The average value of the anticipations for the next six months is 4,6177 (a growth by 278 pips compared with the previous taxable year), while for the next 12 months the average value of the next 12 months is 4,6523 (up by 350 pips).

There are increase estimations of the interest rates for RON both for short term maturities (3 months), as well as for medium term maturities (5 years), 94 percent, respectively 88 percent of the respondents of the survey anticipate this evolution. Thus, the ROBOR average rate with maturity of 3 months anticipated over 12 months is 1.67 percent and the yield for the sovereign bonds denominated in RON with maturity of 5 years is 3.44 percent.

The CFA Romania indicator of macroeconomic trust was launched by CFA Romania in May 2011.

Join the 4th edition of Foreign Investors Summit and discover new ways in which the private sector and public authorities can further integrate their cooperation to secure the country’s growth story going forward.

BR Magazine | Latest Issue

Download PDF: Business Review Magazine March (II) 2024 Issue

The March (II) 2024 issue of Business Review Magazine is now available in digital format, featuring the main cover story titled “BAT DBS Romania Hub: A Vibrant New Office For An Employee-Centric
Georgiana Bendre | 27/03/2024 | 17:32
Advertisement Advertisement
Close ×

We use cookies for keeping our website reliable and secure, personalising content and ads, providing social media features and to analyse how our website is used.

Accept & continue